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February 22, 2024 0 Comments Rebecca Burns Homes for sale in Greater Gainesville FL

Owning in Some Florida Counties Beats Renting 01/23/24

A recent study found that home ownership is more affordable than renting in several Florida counties despite a nationwide trend to the contrary.

NEW YORK – A new report shows that median three-bedroom rents in the U.S. are more affordable than owning a similarly-sized home in nearly 90% of local markets around the nation.

The 2024 Rental Affordability Report was released by property data analytics company ATTOM.

The report shows that both renting and owning a three-bedroom home continue to pose significant financial burdens for average workers, consuming more than one-third of their wages in the vast majority of county-level housing markets.

But median rental rates still require a smaller portion of average wages than major home ownership expenses on three-bedroom properties in 296, or 88%, of the 338 U.S. counties with enough data to analyze.

That gap extends trends from 2023 even as rents have commonly risen faster than home prices over the past year around the U.S.

The analysis for this report incorporated 2024 rental prices and 2023 home prices, collected from ATTOM’s nationwide property database, as well as publicly recorded sales deed data licensed by ATTOM. Those two data sources were combined with average wage figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“Finding an affordable home remains a daunting prospect around the country for average workers, regardless of whether they want to buy or rent. Continuously increasing home prices contribute to the escalation of rental costs, making both buying and renting properties a challenging endeavor across most of the United States,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “But the latest data shows that even as rents are growing faster, they remain more affordable than owning.”

The current situation favoring renting over buying reflects a combination of housing market trends that offer limited straightforward options for home seekers but ultimately lean towards the advantage of rentals.

Over the past year, both rental rates and home prices have continued to rise in most of the country. Rental rates have climbed even faster in a majority of counties with enough data to analyze.

That has happened as elevated home prices have become further and further out of reach for average workers, preventing those with marginal finances from obtaining mortgages and leaving them with few options other than renting. Home prices kept going up in 2023 despite rising mortgage rates, in part because of a tight supply of homes for sale.

Still, despite renting and ownership consuming more than a third of average wages in most local markets, rents haven’t escalated enough to keep them from being the more affordable option for average workers. That trend has held throughout the country but remains most pronounced in the most populous urban and suburban markets.

Changes in rents outpacing home price trends in nearly two-thirds of U.S

Median rents for three-bedroom homes have increased more over the past year, or declined less, than median prices for single-family homes in 210, or 62%, of the 338 counties analyzed in this report.

Counties were included in the report if they had a population of 100,000 or more, at least 100 sales from January through November of 2023 and sufficient data showing changes in three-bedroom rents from 2023 to 2024.

Changes in three-bedroom rents commonly have ranged from 3% decreases to 15% increases while changes in median sale prices for single-family homes last year typically ranged from 3% losses to 7% gains.

Most populous counties have widest affordability gaps between renting and owning

Renting a three-bedroom home, while still difficult for average workers, is most affordable in 2024 compared to owning a median-priced single-family home in the nation’s largest counties. In almost three-quarters of markets with populations of at least 1 million, the portion of average local wages consumed by renting is at least 10%age points lower than the portion required for typical major home ownership expenses.

Comparisons assume a home-purchase mortgage based on a 20% down payment. Major ownership expenses include mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance.

Among 45 counties with a population of at least 1 million included in the report, the biggest gaps are in Honolulu, Hawaii (median three-bedroom rents consume 67% of average local wages while typical single-home affordability consume 134%); Kings County (Brooklyn), NY (72% for renting versus 136% for owning); Alameda County (Oakland), CA (51% for renting versus 108% for owning); Santa Clara County (San Jose), CA (29% for renting versus 83% for owning) and Orange County, CA (outside Los Angeles) (88% for renting versus 136% for owning).

The only two counties with a population of more than 1 million where it is more affordable to buy than rent in 2024 are Riverside County, California (median rents consume 101% of average local wages while typical home ownership costs consume 91%) and Wayne County (Detroit), MI (22% for renting versus 19% for owning).

Renting 3 bedroom homes stretches budgets but remains most affordable in South and Midwest

The report shows that the median three-bedroom rent requires more than one-third of the average local wage in 274 of the 338 counties analyzed for the report (81%).

Among the 64 markets where median three-bedroom rents require less than one-third of average local wages, 59 are in the Midwest and South.

The most affordable for renting are Jefferson County (Birmingham), AL (22% of average local wages needed to rent); Wayne County (Detroit), MI (22%); Ingham County (Lansing), MI (22%); Genesee County (Flint), MI (23%) and Caddo Parish (Shreveport), LA (23%).

Aside from Wayne County, the most affordable counties for renting among those with a population of at least 1 million are Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), OH (24% of average local wages needed to rent); St. Louis County, MO (24%); Allegheny County (Pittsburgh), PA (26%) and Philadelphia County, PA (28%).

The least affordable counties for renting are spread mostly through the South and West, including Collier County (Fort Myers), FL (153% of average local wages needed to rent); Santa Barbara County, CA (131%); Monterey County, CA (outside San Francisco) (107%); Indian River County (Vero Beach), FL (102%) and Riverside County CA (101%).

Aside from Riverside County, the least affordable for renting among counties with a population of at least 1 million are Orange County, CA (outside Los Angeles) (88% of average local wages needed to rent); Los Angeles County, CA (83%); Kings County (Brooklyn), NY (72%) and Palm Beach County (West Palm Beach), FL (70%).

Most-affordable home ownership markets still in South and Midwest; least affordable in West and Northeast

The report shows that major expenses on a median-priced single-family homes require more than one-third of average local wages (assuming a 20% down payment) in 296 of the 338 counties analyzed for the report (88%).

The most affordable markets for owning are Wayne County (Detroit), MI (19% of average local wages needed to own); Montgomery County, AL (21%); St. Louis City/County, MO (23%); Bibb County (Macon), GA (23%) and Caddo Parish (Shreveport), LA (23%).

Aside from Wayne County, the most affordable for owning among counties with a population of at least 1 million are Allegheny County (Pittsburgh), PA; (27% of average local wages needed to own) Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), OH (27%); St. Louis County, MO (30%) and Harris County (Houston), TX (35%).

The least affordable markets for owning among those analyzed are Marin County, CA (outside San Francisco) (164% of average local wages needed to own); Santa Cruz County, CA (160%); Orange County, CA (outside Los Angeles) (136%); Kings County (Brooklyn), NY (136%) and Honolulu County, HI (134%).

Aside from Orange, Kings and Honolulu counties, the least affordable counties among those with a population of at least 1 million are Alameda County (Oakland), CA (108% of average local wages needed to own) and Queens County, NY (105%).

Rents growing faster than wages in majority of markets

Median three-bedroom rents are increasing more than average local wages in 197 of the 338 counties analyzed in the report (58%). They include Los Angeles County, CA; Harris County (Houston), TX; Maricopa County (Phoenix), AZ; San Diego County, CA, and Orange County, CA (outside Los Angeles).

Average local wages are growing faster than average rents in 141 of the counties in the report (42%), including Cook County (Chicago), IL; Kings County (Brooklyn), NY; Miami-Dade County, FL; Queens County, NY, and San Bernardino County, CA.

Wages growing faster than home prices in nearly 60% of nation

Average weekly wages are rising faster than median home prices in 197 of the 338 counties in the report (58%), reversing a pattern seen in 2023. They include Los Angeles County, CA; Cook County (Chicago), IL; Harris County (Houston), TX; Maricopa County (Phoenix), AZ, and San Diego County, CA.

Median home prices are rising faster than average weekly wages in 141 of the counties analyzed in the report (42%), including Orange County, CA (outside Los Angeles); Kings County (Brooklyn), NY; Miami-Dade County, FL; Broward County (Fort Lauderdale), FL, and Middlesex County, MA (outside Boston).

February 22, 2024 0 Comments Rebecca Burns Homes for sale in Greater Gainesville FL Homes for Sale in Greater Gainesville FL

Florida Cities to See Home Price Drop (a forecast)- 02.23.24

Home prices in several Florida metro areas have the highest chances of dropping while prices in other parts of the U.S. will go up through November 2024, CoreLogic said.

NEW YORK – Mortgage rates are pulling back from their dream-crushing highs of last year, but homeowners in 20 U.S. cities may want to brace for higher home prices, a new study found.

Real estate data and analytics company CoreLogic projects that home prices will increase by 2.5% nationwide through November 2024. For homeowners in some cities, like Redding, California and Fairbanks, Alaska, that number is forecast to be more than double.

Despite soaring mortgage rates, and to the exasperation of many first-time buyers, competition and housing prices stayed stubbornly high, according to CoreLogic Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp.

“This continued strength remains remarkable amid the nation’s affordability crunch but speaks to the pent-up demand that is driving home prices higher,” Hepp said in the study. “Markets where the prolonged inventory shortage has been exacerbated by the lack of new homes for sale recorded notable price gains over the course of 2023.”

When it comes to the markets that appear primed for a price decline, Florida dominates the top five.

CoreLogic data shows that the following metro areas have the highest likelihood of home price reductions: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL; West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, FL; Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL; Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL; and Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA.

The company’s forecasts are based on real estate index data that incorporate price, time between sales, property type, loan type and distressed sales. See more on the CoreLogic methodology here.

When it comes to the outlook for home buyers, supply remains the biggest obstacle to a cheaper home as mortgage rates come down.

“Only a dramatic rise in supply will dampen price appreciation,” said National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

By Jeremy Tanner
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